Saturday, June 11, 2011

Was Jordan Hasay Over-Raced?

It has been suggested on various message boards that Jordan Hasay's performance at NCAA this weekend (4th at 5000 meters, 8th at 1500 meters) was in part due to being over-raced by her coaches at the University of Oregon. A quick look at the outdoor season record, though, does not seem to validate this claim. As detailed below, Hasay ran seven (7) 1500 meter races and four (4) 5000 meter races this season. Sheila Reid, by comparison, ran the equivalent of nine (9) 1500 meters races and three (3) 5000 meters races. At bottom, the two runners' schedules looked very similar. One thing that can be said, though, is that Hasay's season best performances occurred very early in the season (on April 15th for the 1500, and May 1 for the 5000). Sheila Reid's season best 1500 was also early on in the season (April 15th -- the same weekend as Hasay's), but Reid's season best 5000 occurred Saturday in the NCAA championship race, which she won.
What to make of all this? Lots of people SB at the Mt Sac meet, so it's no surprise that both Hasay and Reid ran their SBs there (Hasay at 5000, Reid at 1500), but it does seem to be the case that coach Gina Procaccio is very good at getting the women to peak at the crucial times (recall the last two national cross country meets). By way of further comparison, Georgetown's Emily Infeld (2nd at NCAA's at 5000 meters) ran five (5) 1500/1600 meter races, three (3) 800 meter races, and three (3) 5000 meter races this outdoor season. There is not much to choose from among these three: Hasay ran 11 races outdoors, compared to 12 for Reid, and 11 for Infeld. Three of Infeld's races were at 800 meters, so she, if anyone, had the easier go of it. Unlike Hasay and Reid, Infeld did not double at Nationals. Hasay ran seven 1500s, to Reid's nine. Hasay ran four 5000s to Reid's three.
Admittedly, a fuller estimation would require an examination of how much racing went on during indoor season as well, since fatigue accumulates throughout the year. But based in the outdoor season alone, Hasay was no more "over-raced" than Sheila Reid or Emily Infeld, two of her main competitors nationally.

Jordan Hasay's 2011 Outdoor Season
4/9 Oregon Pepsi Invitational 1500 4:18.61 1st
4/15 Mt Sac Invitational 5000 15:37.49 11th SB
5/1 Payton Jordan Stanford 1500 4:10.28 5th SB
5/6- Pac-10 Conference 1500 4:30.35 1st
5/14 Pac-10 Conference 1500 4:19.18 1st
Pac-10 Conference 5000 16:24.10 1st
5/26- NCAA West Regional 5000 16:04.39 4th
5/28 NCAA West Regional 1500 4:24.03 4th
NCAA West Regional 1500 4:20.13 4th
6/9- NCAA Nationals 5000 15:41.00 4th
6/11 NCAA Nationals 1500 4:15.86 3rd
NCAA Nationals 1500 4:17.67 8th

Sheila Reid's 2011 Outdoor Season
4/15 Mt Sac Invitational 1500 4:11.85 2nd SB
4/28- Penn Relays 1600 4:43.83 n/a
4/30 Penn Relays 1500 4:13.4 n/a
5/6- Big East Conference 1500 4:30.32 2nd
5/8 Big East Conference 1500 4:23.98 1st
Big East Conference 5000 16:13.29 1st
5/26- NCAA East Regional 1500 4:22.43 2nd
5/28 NCAA East Regional 1500 4:16.81 1st
NCAA East Regional 5000 16:17.77 4th
6/8- NCAA Nationals 1500 4:16.69 4th
6/11 NCAA Nationals 1500 4:14.57 1st
NCAA Nationals 5000 15:37.57 1st PB


  1. Reid is a senior. Maybe more years of training at the college level prepared her better than Hasay's shorter level of training.

  2. Bill, this is a very interesting question, the answer will may never know. It would seem that Hasay simply hit her seasonal fitness before NCAAs. She may be overtrained (again we can't know) but the likelihood of being over raced is low. I hope if she races USATF she ends her season on a positive note. If I were coaching her, I would end the season now and begin to enjoy the summer, eyes on the XC season.

  3. The other factor is that Hasay is very small physically, and a "normal" race load for her might be too much. In addition, since she's been the "phenom" since the day she set foot on campus as Oregon, she's been trying to live up to very high expectations since day one. That kind of stress can wear a person out as well.